As the atmosphere changes, so will its response to geomagnetic storms

Rising concentrations of carbon dioxide in the upper atmosphere will change the way geomagnetic storms impact Earth, with potential implications for thousands of orbiting satellites, according to new research led by scientists at the US. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) in collaboration with Kyushu University.

Geomagnetic storms, caused by massive eruptions of charged particles from the surface of the Sun that buffet Earth’s atmosphere, are a growing challenge for our technologically dependent society. The storms temporarily increase the density of the upper atmosphere and therefore the drag on satellites, which impacts their speed, altitude, and how long they remain operational.
The new study used an advanced computer model to determine that the upper atmosphere’s density will be lower during a future geomagnetic storm compared with a present-day storm of the same intensity. That’s because the baseline density will be lower, and future storms won’t increase it to levels as high as what occurs with storms currently.

“What does this mean for satellite operators? It means they will need to maneuver their satellites more frequently to cope with faster changes in atmospheric drag—even under the same level of geomagnetic storms. This, in turn, would expose satellites to more collisions. Simply put, space weather impacts may become more severe in the future,” explains  Professor Huixin Liu of Kyushu University’s Faculty of Science one of the collaborators of the study.

However, the relative magnitude of the density increase — the rise from baseline to peak during a multiday storm — will be greater with future storms.

“The way that energy from the Sun affects the atmosphere will change in the future because the background density of the atmosphere is different and that creates a different response,” said NSF NCAR scientist Nicholas Pedatella, the lead author. “For the satellite industry, this is an especially important question because of the need to design satellites for specific atmospheric conditions.”

The study was published in Geophysical Research Letters and is a follow up from a 2021 study which revealed that increasing CO2 level can lead to larger space weather impacts.

The full release can be found here:
https://news.ucar.edu/133035/atmosphere-changes-so-will-its-response-geomagnetic-storms

Research-related inquiries

Liu Huixin, Professor
Faculty of Science
Contact information can also be found in the full release.